I’m seeing a lot of weird comments on the internets, particularly on Twitter. The theme seems to be that Obama has somehow lost momentum, or that Clinton’s wins last night are somehow turning this race back the other way. The others are all about this Clinton/Obama ticket that even Hillary is talking about being an option as if she is now the frontrunner and needs to think about VP options…
People are entitled to their opinions of course, but I have to say that none of this is logical.
Let’s go to the numbers, shall we? Here’s a chart from pollster.com, which shows a compilation of the Ohio polls leading up to the primaries last night.
As you can see, there is a very clear upward trend for Obama overall, particularly since just before 2008 began. Clinton, on the other hand has had a somewhat pronounced downturn, which is obvious from the end of the graph. What this chart says is that Clinton did NOT take away momentum from the Obama campaign, but rather that Obama has been taking momentum away from the Clinton, campaign pretty steadily. For almost a year. He overcame a HUGE deficit in the polls, and wound up losing the primaries. He lost by 10%, and will still take 59 delegates. She gets 71. Contrary to what she said in her victory speech in Columbus, she is not “back” as she was always on top in Ohio.
Now onto Texas, where they are still processing caucus results.
Again, the trend for Obama is clearly upward, and the trend for Clinton clearly downward, right up until the very latest polls. The new upward trend may continue, but looking at the chart clearly shows what was once a wide gap has drastically narrowed, in Obama’s favor. This is not showing Clinton having “momentum.”
The primaries portion of the Texas “two-step” went to Clinton, 51% to 48%. A very small margin. Clinton takes 65 delegates, and Obama gets 61. If you’re keeping track, that means Clinton has a net gain of 16 between Ohio and Texas. Obama is currently ahead in the caucus counts and once those are tabulated I expect his trend of dominating in caucuses will hold. That means it is very possible that Obama will walk away with more delegates in TX. That is going to cut into that net gain.
There really aren’t enough data points for Rhode Island, but Clinton was always ahead there, and Obama still gets 8 delegates to her 13. Vermont has a similar lack of data points, with Obama maintaining a lead with what is available and taking 6 delegates to her 9.
That makes the delegate break down (not including the Texas caucuses) as follows:
Clinton gets 65 delegates from Texas, 71 from Ohio, 9 from Vermont and 13 from Rhode Island for a total of 158. Obama gets 61 from Texas, 59 from Ohio, 6 from Vermont and 8 from Rhode Island, for a total of 134. That means that Clinton had a net gain last night of 24 delegates, not counting the Texas caucus delegates which are currently favoring Obama, 52% to 48%.
I hardly think a 24-delegate-gain is anything to write home about, and certainly doesn’t warrant the “we have the momentum” email that I got from Camp Clinton last night.
Now, onto the “dream ticket” question. I have one answer. She needs him, and that is why she’s the one in the media now talking about that option. He doesn’t need her and that is why he is talking about how it is too soon to talk about that.
The media wants to put this thing away for one or the other depending on who won the most recent contest, which is self-destructive for them as this is like a Super Bowl every freaking day, and really really weird.
My prediction is that Obama will win Mississippi and Wisconsin this weekend and Tuesday and everyone will jump right back on the wagon.
I leave you with this very telling chart, covering the nation-wide contest. Still think you have the momentum, Mrs. Clinton?
drop science.